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Government Spending. Data Visualizations. September 30, Share Tweet Print.
Key materials. Sign Up for our Weekly Email. Here are some key observations: public debt, which changes in response to surpluses or deficits, shrunk as a share of GDP in the lates; from FY through FY , the federal government ran surpluses and GDP was growing rapidly, which reduced debt held by the public; when large deficits returned and GDP growth slowed in the early s, public debt increased again.
One issue that must be addressed soon is the federal debt ceiling, which will be in the debt limit before approving a long-term increase as part of the reconciliation Policymakers should work promptly to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. Debt Limit Deadline Accelerates, Research Group Finds, Raising Pressure on Congress —Andrew Duehren contributed to this article.
Budget Process. Related Content Expert Commentary. You can help correct errors and omissions.
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In this paper we investigate the external debt sustainability using a quantile autoregression QAR model.
QAR is a new type of econometric models used to separate periods of nonstationarity from the stationarity ones. This kind of model allows us to identify various trajectories of external debt that are compatible with indebtness sustainability.
We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of external debt that does not jeopardize long-run indebtness sustainability. We illustrate the applicability of such econometric tool using Romanian data.